Chasing the Tartan Tiger: Lessons from a Celtic cousin?

Thursday, 4th September 2003

Scots have always enjoyed debating the fortunes of the nation.  

Yet too often that debate has rarely reached beyond our own shores.  

Better understanding the Irish story matters.  

Interestingly the Irish economy is now forecast to grow more slowly than Scotland this year – but over the last decade she experienced an exciting economic take-off.   

Given recent Irish successes it is not surprising that many commentators have sought an Irish magic bullet: none exists.  

The Irish did what was right for their time and circumstances and Scotland must do the same.  

To “do an Ireland” will mean having our own strategy and “doing a Scotland”. 

Our different histories matter.  

Until the 1990s Ireland had the least impressive economic performance in Western Europe in the twentieth century.  

Ireland in the 1990s was catching up with a take-off that had long since happened in other northern European nations.  

The Celtic Tiger phenomenon was essentially a late take-off.  

Scotland with our earlier record of economic success should be more of a turnaround story.

In Ireland a critical element was a change in her psyche; a new spirit, which became more and more positive as the old ‘victim culture’ receded.  

Ireland’s rising self confidence pre-dated but has been intimately linked to her improved economic performance.  

But success only came when Ireland “parked her border question”.  

It took more than four decades until the late fifties for Ireland to emerge from her own much more traumatic nation building phase, and two decades more to start to converge economically with her northern European neighbours.  

One of the reasons it took Ireland so long to catch up – was that during those decades the issues at the top of her agenda were her constitution, and matters of governance and nation building.

Economic ambitions were subordinated to political ones.

We in Scotland should learn two lessons firstly that constitutional change per se is no guarantor of economic success and secondly that an obsession with constitutional change and governance can only squeeze out the really important growth and economy agenda.  

Scotland now has its Parliament and many, many people want to move on from the tired governance argument to the new growth one.  

If we have more constitutional constipation it will only get in the way of growth.  

It now it is really up to us to take responsibility.  

She can create a Tartan Tiger – a turnaround story – much faster than the decades it took for the Celtic Tiger to emerge.  

Achieving growth is more about changing Scotland’s mindset than about redrawing her map with the rest of the UK. 

Three important Irish lessons emerge

Self-belief matters

We can learn lessons about tackling Scotland’s typically low levels of self-confidence.

Ireland went from the self-pity satirised as the “MOPE – most oppressed people on earth” syndrome — across the world it became “cool” to be Irish.  

And in the process the old, familiar Ireland died only to be replaced by change, flux and uncertainty.  

Scotland needs to develop greater self-belief, harnessing her own Celtic melancholy and transcending both “Scots wha hae” and “I kent his faither” attitudes.   

Scottish self-esteem is there to be recovered and the foundations have already been laid.   

As in Ireland, the quality, status and relevance of education will be fundamental to raising our self-confidence. 

Economic goals temporarily take precedence

To make quick early progress the economy should take centre stage.  

Political sovereignty does not guarantee economic sovereignty, and economic sovereignty does not guarantee prosperity, particularly when the spirit of the times is ever growing inter-dependence.  

“Doing a Scotland” starting in 2005, will be fundamentally different from “doing an Ireland” in 1985.  

It means a high road rather than a low road economic strategy.  

There are no simple policy parachutes.  

The Irish had low corporation tax for inward investors since the late 50s, yet the Irish takeoff only came after 1987 with the commitment to balance the budget, fiscal retrenchment and to the new social partnership.  

The turning point was carrying credibility with investors.  

Ireland began on an economic low road where she competed on cost and price but she quickly moved to a high road strategy based on higher value products, higher skills and superior capabilities.  

Scotland also has no option but to pursue a high road strategy – that is what Smart, Successful Scotland is about.  

We might have come late to the game but like the Irish today we need to focus on boosting our science and skills – the fundamentals that will underpin future success.

Place consensus building on the economy above domestic division

In Ireland a social partnership process built a shared understanding of the issues and elevated the economic agenda.

That concensus on the economy could only happen once Ireland had finally “parked her border question”; and ceased to be preoccupied by her relationship with the rest of the UK.  

Scotland needs to do the same. 

How to do it. 

Scotland needs a new story that comes from a new self belief.  

As Jim Wallace said this week we must consign our inferiority complex to history.  

We have an immensely useable past, a cultural and historical legacy of scholarship and invention which stands comparison with any on earth.  

Already 30 years of both constitutional constipation and painful economic transition are receding.  

Scotland is a natural home for knowledge based businesses.  

But how “Scotland sees Scotland” is one of our biggest handicaps.  

The world is more positive than we are about ourselves and living up to our international image should be a key challenge that pre-occupies this generation.  

We need to be willing to embrace the future and not remain in the past.  

Ireland has become a nation comfortable with change and Scotland must do the same.  

Above all Scotland has choices: not the old choices framed in the old ways, but new choices framed in new ways.  

Scots may have anticipated the political change represented by home rule – but we are only starting to explore the emotional, cultural and economic consequences – it is those challenges that should exercise our minds and excite our spirit.   

This article appeared in the Evening News