Sunday Express piece on SNP

Remember the 1970s? The SNP do. The back of a Bay City Rollers album seems to be where the nationalists have rediscovered and dusted off their policy of “It’s Scotland’s Oil” and independence.

Now I recognise any moves to independence would cause economic uncertainty, whilst the SNP’s planned entry to the Euro would damage our economy and their plans to leave Nato would leave Scotland isolated on the world stage.

I could fill a newspaper with the fundamental flaws in Alex Salmond’s agenda, but one of the most interesting and longest running is that of oil. 

The SNP always cite “Scotland’s Oil” as our economic salvation. So what is the truth about North Sea Oil – would it make Scotland wealthier than the “Union Dividend”.

The “Union Dividend” is the product of us sharing risks, resources and revenues with the rest of the UK. It helps Scotland pay for public services and pensions and has been double the total oil revenue since devolution.   

Oil prices have risen in the last couple of years – but for how long? Oil was back in the public spotlight this week when Chancellor Gordon Brown said in his Pre-Budget Report that oil revenues were set to fall. So let us get some facts straight.  

·    Oil revenues are falling against forecasts as the Chancellor said this week   

·    Oil is a finite resource which the Financial Times reported this week would run out in 2030.

·    Oil is a volatile resource, making long term planning very difficult. The price has fallen this year by over 25% since its summer peak. 

Based on these simple facts, who in their right mind would want to base an entire economy on oil? The SNP actually.  

Alex Salmond wants the Scottish economy to be based on a decreasing, volatile resource, from which revenue is falling as is the price. 

The SNP used to talk of “Scotland in Europe”, today they talk about small countries like Iceland and Norway which are not even in Europe.  

They say Norway is oil rich and Scotland could be like Norway.

What they forget to say is that Norway has higher income tax – VAT is 25% and a pint of lager cost over £4.

No wonder the SNP are keeping it quiet! The Nationalists also say that Scotland could be like Ireland. Except of course there is a charge to go and see a doctor in Ireland, currently about 50 euros.

In my view this would be a backwards step. 

Successful economies need stability.

Labour’s management of the UK economy has ended Tory boom and bust and replaced it with the lowest mortgage rates and inflation since the 1960s.  

Scotland has more jobs than ever before, one of the highest employment rates in Europe and unemployment levels below those in the rest of the UK.

The SNP invite us to walk away from the highest levels of public spending ever, to inherit a funding gap that oil will not fill and divert resources to setting up our own armed forces and diplomatic corp.  

But the real risk of the SNP is not their faith in oil. The SNP are unable to say who would set interest rates in a separate Scotland, what their inflation target would be, and what the Scottish currency would be.  This confusion surrounding the most basic questions about the macro economy creates unease and threatens investment.  

Under the SNP, Scotland would face the reality of public expenditure cuts or the threat of higher borrowing to maintain the same standard of living. Five years ago the SNP published a forecast for oil production. They have not done so since. Doubtless because oil production is already down one third, is due to fall further and could be exhausted by 2030. So not only will the “Union Dividend” have gone but so will oil revenues – long before many Scots are picking up their pensions. 

Labour is the only political party in Scotland who will tackle anti-social behaviour, and improve schools and hospitals. The SNP cannot put public services first, because separation will always be the policy that they care about the most. Whereas Labour promises more powers for the police; the SNP promise more powers for the parliament. When Labour invests in new schools and hospitals; the SNP will have to invest in embassies and armed forces. When Labour puts public services first; the SNP’s economic incompetence would lead to cuts in public services. 

So as the SNP try and breathe life back into an argument about oil that has been defeated almost as many times as Alex Salmond, I think Scotland should be looking forward on a sound economic footing, proud of Labour’s strong stewardship of the economy and ambitious for the kind of progress the SNP can’t deliver.